Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 2.384369 2.531499 2.692419 2.883429 3.106683 3.363011 3.685296
2025-05-25 2.215154 2.399280 2.610237 2.874851 3.205906 3.618969 4.197220
2025-06-01 2.094072 2.298914 2.541253 2.857640 3.274723 3.832248 4.693547
2025-06-08 1.996870 2.214316 2.477887 2.832966 3.321613 4.015370 5.193468
2025-06-15 1.941001 2.173356 2.461787 2.862902 3.440534 4.318010 5.993816
2025-06-22 1.843462 2.073065 2.361143 2.767660 3.365814 4.305569 6.218419
2025-06-29 1.790622 2.025753 2.325218 2.756690 3.411855 4.495239 6.944388
2025-07-06 1.724940 1.958169 2.257794 2.694802 3.371049 4.525660 7.328759
2025-07-13 1.703533 1.946533 2.263921 2.737980 3.499844 4.890771 8.881217
2025-07-20 1.696785 1.953254 2.294662 2.819083 3.701861 5.462163 12.080418
2025-07-27 1.665576 1.925489 2.275306 2.821609 3.767665 5.766317 15.180458
2025-08-03 1.639000 1.902639 2.261324 2.830813 3.846124 6.129790 20.940333
2025-08-10 1.589254 1.847595 2.200422 2.763939 3.779335 6.118281 23.835243
2025-08-17 1.559183 1.818425 2.175461 2.753205 3.819327 6.415087 38.943226
2025-08-24 1.529389 1.788470 2.147822 2.735854 3.843769 6.682102 103.718645
2025-08-31 1.499908 1.757900 2.117855 2.712435 3.852803 6.910376 NaN
2025-09-07 1.485730 1.748064 2.117886 2.739068 3.969693 7.573823 NaN
2025-09-14 1.442911 1.696658 2.053798 2.652101 3.831306 7.234952 NaN
2025-09-21 1.421902 1.675567 2.034656 2.641918 3.861242 7.573867 NaN
2025-09-28 1.390141 1.638445 1.990123 2.585338 3.782432 7.445027 NaN
2025-10-05 1.383923 1.637404 2.000149 2.624689 3.925093 8.357862 NaN
2025-10-12 1.385976 1.648127 2.028444 2.698499 4.163091 10.098332 NaN
2025-10-19 1.371312 1.634226 2.017911 2.700772 4.226600 10.986832 NaN